India is expected to surpass Germany to become the world’s fourth largest economy in 2026. In 2032, India will surpass Japan to become the world’s third largest economy, and by 2035, India could become the world’s third $10 trillion dollar economy.
According to the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), India is on its way to becoming the world’s third economic superpower. India surpassed the United Kingdom to become the world’s fifth largest economy in 2021 and it is expected to surpass Germany to become the world’s fourth largest economy in 2026. In 2032, India will surpass Japan to become the world’s third largest economy, and by 2035, India could become the world’s third $10 trillion dollar economy.
According to CEBR research, global GDP will continue to recover and is expected to be $102 trillion in 2022, with the potential to double to $206 trillion in 2037. The high inflation of 2022 may cause a recession in 2023.
Growth will be driven by expansion in the economies of developing countries, which will continue to eat into the share of traditionally rich countries.
China is not expected to overtake the US before 2036, contrary to previous estimates of 2028, due to economic restrictions imposed by the country’s zero-covid policy and increased trade tensions between China and the West. If China attacks Taiwan, the scale of the resulting international sanctions would cripple the economy to the point where China would never be able to overtake the US, as 15% of China’s GDP is derived from exports to countries that are likely to retaliate.
In 2022, Russia’s economy was ranked ninth in the world. However, as a result of the sanctions imposed following the invasion of Ukraine, it is expected to drop to 14th by 2037.
According to the study , the relative position of European economies does not change significantly. Despite the Brexit impact, the UK was expected to grow faster than the rest of the EU in previous years. Except for demographic reasons, the UK’s relatively high tax outlook means that its growth is unlikely to outpace that of most other major European economies.
Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country, is expected to rise from 17th largest economy in 2022 to 11th largest economy by 2037.
Three rapidly growing Asian economies are expected to rise faster among the larger economies. Vietnam advances from 39th to 26th in 2037, Bangladesh from 34th to 20th, and the Philippines from 38th to 27th.
Singapore and Malaysia’s local rivalry is likely to continue. In 2015, the Singaporean economy surpassed that of Malaysia. Malaysia is expected to overtake Singapore once more in 2027, owing to a combination of demographics and its broader economic base, and to be the world’s 35th largest economy by 2037.