German Elections – Will It Redefine Geopolitics and Economic Partnerships

Whole World is keenly watching the German elections, due on 26 September 2021 due to its long term implications on the Geopolitics, Transatlantic Ties, Engagement With Russia, Nord Stream 2 etc . Election will be a close contest between three major German Political parties. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), represented by Olaf Scholz, Armin Laschet, the chancellor candidates from Angela Markel’s CDU, and  Annalena Baerbock representing the Green.

September 2021 Election will bring an end to the Merkel’s long stint as one of the longest serving German Leader, who served as Chancellor of Germany for four consecutive term, spanning nearly 16 years. She will be remembered as one of the tallest leaders of Germany and European Union.  Earlier, in October 2018, Merkel announced that she would not seek a fifth term as Chancellor in 2021. Armin Laschet who was serving as Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia since June 2017 was recently elected as leader of CDU in 2021.

The poll reviews conducted after the first televised debate (first of the three in series), places Olaf Scholz marginally ahead of the Laschet (CDU) and Baerbock (Green). Olaf Scholz rose to popularity for handling the pandemic by granting the  emergency €750bn (£675bn; $884bn) funding package to help German businesses and workers to overcome the deep impact of  pandemic.

If Olaf Scholz is successful in forming the Government, it will push the Global tax reforms, where Multinationals Corporation would be required to pay a minimum tax rate. Global Corporation / big tech giants (Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon) may face the tax consequences.

Olaf Scholz policy favours co-operation and dialogues with Russia. While earlier giving an Interview to German public state-owned international broadcaster, Deutsche Welle (DW),  Olaf Scholz made his views clear by referring the need of a new policy like Ostpolitik, formulated by willy Brandt for easing relationship with Russia, during Cold War period.  Further there are various sticky issues involved, like Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is the key to Berlin’s energy security and involve direct transportation of natural gas from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea. It has been opposed by Europe and US.

If Coalition Government comes to power their could be bigger challenges with respect to dealing with China, which is Germany’s one of the largest trading partner. Olaf Scholz has been in dialogue with China for opening the markets and economic cooperation. Election outcome is going to be a widely watched affair as the new Government will be giving new dimensions to geopolitical and trade relations. Managing relationship with Russia and China, whilst strengthening co-operation with Washington will be a thing to watch. If post polls, the collation Government is formed, managing the terms of collation in a rapidly changing world with unpredictable situations will be the testing events of partnership.   

Bureau Galactik Views

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